Tensions Escalating on the Korean Peninsula
Now more than ever we stand at a crossroad between peace and conflict. Tensions on the Korean Peninsula continue to escalate to unprecedented levels. Most concerning of these escalations are North Korea’s December 31st policy changes and the subsequent actions taken by South Korea and the United States.
On December 31st, Chairman Kim Jong Un described current inter-Korean relations as a “relationship between two hostile countries and two belligerents at war.” Chairman Kim added that North and South Korea are no longer considered the same ethnic, homogenous people, and thus reunification will no longer be pursued. Since this declaration, there has been no dialogue or cooperation between North and South Korea, and North Korea has taken down their propaganda websites targeting the South, suggesting that they are revamping their entire political strategy. North Korea is now in a state of military preparation for war.
These changes are not abrupt. North Korea has been making efforts to limit their people’s access to South Korean people and culture since new laws began to be passed back in December 2020. First, the “Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Act” was passed to protect the country from infiltrating South Korean culture. Then in February 2022, the “Youth Culture Protection Act” followed by the “Pyongyang Cultural Language Protection Act” in January 2023 were also passed. All three new laws serve to preserve and protect North Korean language and culture, keeping them distinctly separate from the South.
North Korea’s need to protect their way of life may be a reaction to offensive actions taken by South Korea. Offensive actions include recent alliances formed with the United States and Japan, prior launching of propaganda balloons by defectors in South Korea, and joint military drills with the U.S. and Japan. In response to this tri-country alliance, North Korea has been strengthening ties with Russia and possibly other authoritarian nations. These two superpower alliances are the cause of increased military tension in northeast Asia.
U.S. and South Korean (ROK) Military Drills Increase Tensions on the Korean Peninsula
What does all of this mean? First, it means that communication between North and South Korea has ceased. Both sides are ramping up their campaigns against the other. This includes even South Korean NGOs being discouraged and blocked from providing humanitarian aid to North Korea.
Secondly, it means that the threat of war, and possibly nuclear war, is more a real risk than it has ever been. To deter an attack from the North, a U.S. nuclear-powered submarine was dispatched and arrived in South Korea’s Busan port on December 17th. The purpose of the submarine is to discourage military action, but ironically such an act may be received as military provocation by North Korea.
U.S. Nuclear-Powered Submarine Arrived in Busan Port on December 17, 2023
The end result is an impasse. North Korea blames the U.S. and now also South Korea for their hostile actions against them. The U.S. blames North Korea for the threat of nuclear war on the Korean Peninsula. Neither side is willing to negotiate terms. North Korea wants a peace treaty to officially end the Korean War, which has been legally ongoing for the past 73 years, as well as economic development. Whereas, the U.S. demands a total nuclear disarmament before they will even begin negotiations. Unfortunately, the situation on the Korean Peninsula has been at a standstill for the past 70 plus years. Now with escalating tensions, the Korean War could easily go from a cease of arms to active combat.
What is the solution? For sure, it is not war. If war were to break out on the Korean Peninsula, there would be catastrophic consequences with possibly millions of people dying, in both the North and the South.
What is the alternative then? We need to start over from scratch. Talks with North Korea are largely unsuccessful because the US and North Korea are coming from two opposite spectrums. Meaningful peace talks can only ever happen on the basis of mutual understanding and a willingness to come to the negotiating table on equal footing.
The first step is simple. Reduce military aggression and re-engage in dialogue. North Korea will not likely wage war unless provoked by South Korea, the U.S., or Japan. Christine Ahn, CEO of Women Cross DMZ recently quoted Robert Gallucci, former chief U.S. negotiator during the North Korean nuclear crisis of 1994, that, “The answer is simple but not easy. The United States must genuinely seek normalization of relations and keep denuclearization as a longer-term goal rather than a first step in the process.”
Without engagement, that is a true willingness to sacrifice smaller objectives for the greater picture, there cannot be negotiation or peace. But this step has to be taken genuinely. A display of power and force may mistakenly become cause for massive explosion, but a step back could just possibly deescalate one of the most dangerous threats in Asia today.